Binary Options Trading Hot Puts on a Rising Market

Binary options trading of puts will be the hot play I figure if market activity holds form. The market / S&P 500 is poised to jump close to a percent and a half based on pre-opening activity; forex trading is showing risk positive pre-market. If recent trading history follows form the market will open basically at the pre-market levels then fall over like a rotten leaf somewhere around 10am.

As per normal we’ll be following the forex trading markets for signs of the el-floppo towards risk negative. That will be the opportunity to buy the put side of the binary hedge and double trade we like to try to setup. The plan then is to leave that trade open until we see the risk on switch in the forex market again. With any luck two $200 trades will fall in the money and make $300 a day net profit. That is the idea after all.

Stock Market and Currencies in Holding Pattern

The stock market and the forex markets remain in a holding pattern established soon after the open this morning. Much like the Cold War detente of the 1980s nobody is blinking. We expected a significant distribution opportunity this morning however it appears the weak USD and Yen / strong Euro are continuing to hold markets up. I remain optimistic that the forex markets will flip over. Nothing to do but wait until then. There are advantages to being out of the market.

We finally are starting to see the anticipated turn over in the “small fish” of the forex market, namely AUD and NZL and now are looking for the bigger fish to turn risk negative. With the markets S&P 500 and such up a hefty 2.3% this afternoon the possibility of leaving a binary options put trade naked is becoming a real possibility. We make this our bias based on the notion is would be hard for the forex markets to flip risk negative then back positive in such a short time horizon.

S&P 500 and Forex Markets in a Standoff at Days End

Once again the beauty of putting yourself out of the market and only trading on reliable signals (and otherwise staying disengaged) was made abundantly clear today. The markets were standing at detente after the pre-open runup going through the open at 10am and remained little moved throughout the day – not worth the risk for the 0.3% upside that came from about 10:30 – 11:00am through around 2:30pm. My strategy involves waiting for the shift in risk aversion and getting in as the wave is starting. Don’t see the wave? Stay out. It’s not the most active strategy but it sure does preserve capital. After all… trading just for the sake of trading… that’s the loser’s game.

So we didn’t get an opportunity to make our binary options hedge the way we would like but we didn’t get caught with our pants around our ankles either, did we? Maybe tomorrow will be more favorable: after all – the higher the market (sans real news) the greater the likelihood of a turn in risk aversion… and turns are what I trade on.

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